CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 16Z SUN 11/07 - 06Z MON 12/07 2004
ISSUED: 11/07 16:08Z
FORECASTER: DAHL

General thunderstorms are forecast across the central Mediterranean and E Europe.

SYNOPSIS

See outlook from 10 July 04.

DISCUSSION

......
Quick update ... somewhat cooler air mass has advected into W Romania ... Bugaria ... the Ukraine and Moldavia. Also ... the steep lapse rates have likely been mixed out by the vigorous convective activity from the past few days. However ... along the W coast of the Black Sea ... CAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg may still be present ... and with 15 to 20 m/s 500 hPa flow ... a few hail and severe wind evends may occur. Allover setup looks to be quite marginal though and the categorical risk could be dropped.

Farther upstream ... a few TSTMS may continue to develop over the next hours amidst DCVA-related UVV regime. 20 to 30 m/s 500 hPa flow will likely support short lines and bow echoes ... as well as a few mesocyclones despite the weak CAPE. An isolated severe wind event as well as some hail may occur. Also ... a brief tornado is not excluded though overall severe TSTM threat remains rather low given anticipated low TSTM coverage.

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